The Kouk's top 40 hits and misses

more Over the summer break, while fiddling through data bases, reading and just being interested in things, I unearthed a few quirky bits and pieces about the Australian economy, people, sport

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more Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in Treasury, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist
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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Aussie house prices are set to fall

Fri, 26 Aug 2016

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 web site at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/aussie-house-prices-are-set-to-fall-060654607.html 

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Aussie house prices are set to fall

Australian house prices are set to fall … and it’s all about supply and demand.

There is not much doubt about that, but the big questions are how substantial the falls will be and how long the price declines will last?

The supply of dwellings is increasing in line with an extraordinary construction boom. Australia is building dwellings at a record level. At the time, underlying demand for dwellings is falling as population growth has slowed to its weakest pace in close to a decade.

Let’s look at the dynamics.

Over the course of 2015, Australia’s population rose by 326,100 people. This is well down from the peak level of almost 460,000 in 2008, 422,000 in 2009 and even 400,000 in 2012. In terms of the new demand, 326,100 people will require around 142,000 new dwellings to live in based on the estimate by the Australian Bureau of Statistics of 2.3 people occupying each dwelling. In 2014, with population growth of 328,500, 143,000 extra dwellings were needed.

Inequality: The Facts and the Future

Mon, 22 Aug 2016

I was delighted to be involved in the preparation of the research report by the Chifley Research Centre – “Inequality: The Facts and the Future

The report is at this link: http://www.chifley.org.au/Inequality-the-facts-and-the-future 

It was released today and it outlines a range of critical issues relating to income and wealth inequality, but the key issues for me related to how reductions in inequality can be positive for economic growth.